Black Friday Is Won or Lost at the Returns Page, Warns SEKO Logistics

SEKO Logistics’ Steve Aylott explains why retailers should judge peak on whether Black Friday shoppers come back, as new research shows the returns policy now shapes the first sale and the next one.

Black Friday falls on 27 November this year, and for most retailers the measure of a good peak will be the number of orders that leave the warehouse. But the sale is only half of the transaction. A growing share of shoppers now decide whether to buy based on what happens if they need to send something back, and how that return goes shapes whether they ever buy again.

The audience for the sales is also skewing younger. YouGov’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2026 report found that 23% of Brits plan to shop the sales events, rising to 31% of Gen Z and millennials. The returns from those orders will land through December and January, exactly when retailers are trying to turn one-off bargain hunters into repeat customers.

“Peak tends to be judged on how many orders go out of the door,” said Steve Aylott, Sales Director UK & Ireland at SEKO Logistics. “But the first purchase isn’t the goal, the repeat purchase is. When a Black Friday customer sends something back, that return is often the last experience they have of the brand before they decide whether to shop there again.”

The returns policy is now part of the sale

Shoppers are reading the returns policy before they reach the checkout. In The Ecommerce Returns Opportunity, a survey of 1,000 UK consumers by IMRG and nShift, 85.6% said a retailer’s returns policy is important when deciding whether to buy online, with 45.6% calling it very important.

What happens after the purchase matters just as much. 42.3% said they would be much less inclined to shop with a retailer again after a poor return, and a further 28.8% would stop shopping with that retailer altogether. Taken together, that is more than seven in ten shoppers whose future spending depends on how a return is handled.

Expectations are also high on speed. 47.4% expect to be able to start a return within one to three minutes, and a further 30.1% within five. For retailers handling a Black Friday spike, that leaves little room for a slow or confusing process at the busiest point of the year.

“Retailers spend months planning how to get orders out at peak, and far less time planning for what comes back,” Aylott said. “But returns volumes follow sales volumes. If the returns process can’t keep up in December, it’s the customer who notices first, and they remember it when the next sale comes round.”

Returns are leaving the home

How shoppers send items back is changing too. The same IMRG and nShift research found that more than 70% of UK shoppers would be likely to return an online purchase in store rather than by post, if the option were available.

Parcel lockers are growing fast as a returns route. Research by Retail Economics for InPost, Beyond the Doorstep, estimates that 28 million online returns, around 12% of the UK total, went through parcel lockers in a year. Younger shoppers lead that shift: 66% of Gen Z and 54% of millennials had used a parcel locker in the previous 12 months.

That matters at peak because the shoppers most likely to buy in the Black Friday sales are also the most likely to expect a return that fits around their day, rather than a trip to the post office.

“Your fulfilment partner isn’t simply moving parcels from A to B,” Aylott said. “At peak, they are representing your brand at one of the most important moments in the customer journey. Shoppers want delivery and returns that are fast, flexible, reliable and transparent, and they increasingly expect to choose where a return goes, not just when.”

What retailers should check before peak

With a month to go, Aylott points to four questions retailers can still act on before Black Friday volumes arrive:

1. Is the returns policy clear before checkout? If 85.6% of shoppers weigh the policy before buying, the return window, any fees and refund timing need to be visible on the product page, not buried in the terms.
2. Can the returns process cope with peak volumes? Returns follow sales. A process that works in October can slow down badly in December if capacity for collecting, inspecting and restocking items hasn’t been planned for the spike.
3. Are customers offered a choice of where to return? Lockers, parcel shops and stores all reduce friction for shoppers, particularly younger ones, but each route needs to feed back into the same stock and refund systems.
4. How quickly does returned stock go back on sale? Items returned in early December can still be resold before Christmas if they are processed quickly. Left in a backlog, they lose value with every week that passes.

“None of this means every retailer needs to overhaul its returns operation before Black Friday,” Aylott added. “But it’s worth being honest about where the pressure points are. The retailers who come out of peak in the best shape are usually the ones who planned for the return as carefully as they planned for the sale.”

SEKO’s Complete Guide to Reverse Logistics and Returns Management sets out how retailers can build returns into their wider fulfilment planning.